global warming?

Published in The Post-Star (D1)

10/24/05

The sky isn't necessarily falling, but it's certainly heating up.

The Northeast experienced its warmest July through September in more than a century this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and last month was the hottest September on record in terms of global land temperatures. Hurricane season was unusually strong, too -- there's only been one other year (1933) with this many storms.

For many scientists, this all points to one conclusion. Global warming is changing the Earth's climate, fueled by humans' ever-increasing output of carbon dioxide from things like cars and factories.

Local farmers aren't so sure. Many said it's been a strange year, with one of the latest frosts they can remember, but they aren't ready to jump on the global warming bandwagon just yet. They're used to coping with fickle weather patterns.

"I've seen so many changes in the weather over the years, that I'm pretty skeptical," said Tom Borden, 51. "We shouldn't ignore it, but I'm hesitant to throw in with the idea too quickly."

His family has owned a farm in Easton for six generations, which includes an apple orchard and a dairy farm. He said the long spell of dry, hot weather this summer made for a good haying season, and the corn matured more quickly than he'd expected in September. The late frost has allowed him to keep harvesting apples into late October, without concern for the bruising that can occur on frozen fruit.

"It's been a good growing season for us; a real long one," said Borden. "I wouldn't say I've never seen this before, but it's rare."

Ken Macica, a farmer in Schuylerville, said it was a season of mixed blessings. The dry summer took a toll on the size of his pumpkins, but he had a bumper hay crop of about 12,000 bales. Heavy rains in recent weeks have put a damper on his corn maze. There's only one place where things have grown predictably -- his greenhouses.

"You can grow anything in a greenhouse," he said.

But what happens when the whole planet is a greenhouse that won't stop heating up?

While a longer growing season could be a boost for agriculture, warmer fall temperatures also mean a duller, delayed foliage season. For upstate New York, where tourism employs more than 106,000 people, that could be a real problem.

"As we have fall after fall of dull colors, people will no longer travel great distances to see it," said Dr. Barrett Rock, a professor of natural resources at the University of New Hampshire. "I don't think this year is a fluke. It certainly follows a pattern that we've been in since the mid-90s."

Rock was part of a team that published a 2001 report on how climate change could affect New England and upstate New York. Using what's called the Hadley model for computerized climate modeling, the team calculated that the average temperature of the region could rise by 6 degrees Fahrenheit in the next century. And that's the conservative estimate; another modeling system predicts a rise of 10 degrees.

That might sound good to people who complain about cold weather, said Rock, but think of it in these terms: The average temperatures in Boston will eventually mirror the current climate in Richmond, Va., or Atlanta, Ga., depending on which model is correct.

"There would be no skiing, no maples to tap and no beautiful displays of fall foliage," said Rock. "I'm just a dumb botanist, not an economist, but I think its very safe to say that there will be severe, significant economic impacts with the kind of warming that's predicted."

Local science writer Bill McKibben agrees that the forecast for the next 100 years doesn't look good.

"By some point in this century, unless we really get to work changing our fuel systems in huge ways, we'll have no real winter -- no period when snow stays on the ground," predicts McKibben. "We'll just have month after month of mud season -- and brutally hot summers."

McKibben, a former writer for The New Yorker magazine, has been researching this topic for years. In 1989, he wrote one of the first books on climate change for a general audience, "The End of Nature." His latest book, "Wandering Home," offers a hopeful look at this region as a model for change.

"A hundred years ago, the Adirondacks were largely clearcut, and now it's become the largest example of ecological restoration anyplace on Earth," said McKibben, who lived in Johnsburg for many years. "What makes that especially sweet is that it wasn't done by building a wall around it. There's still many people making a living there."

Thinking locally is an important step in the right direction, he said, and farmers are well-positioned to take the lead by helping to build strong local food networks. Buying local food not only helps the economy, it reduces carbon dioxide emissions because less fuel is used for transportation.

Rock said he's not surprised to hear that many farmers are reluctant to accept signs of climate change.

"They're right, the weather is always changing, but it's also true that the atmospheric chemistry has changed in the last few decades. We're seeing a dramatic increase in the amount of severe weather, and that's going to affect farming in a big way."

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